Billions earmarked for new jails would be better invested in probation

The Howard League has responded to the government’s plans to open up 14,000 more prison places by 2031, outlined in a new 10-year strategy announced today (Wednesday 11 December).

Andrea Coomber KC (Hon.), Chief Executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “We cannot build our way out of this crisis. The billions of pounds earmarked for opening new jails would be better invested in securing an effective and responsive probation service, working to cut crime in the community.

“Problems in prisons spill out into the towns and cities around them, and new jails put added strain on local public services. When violence and self-harm are rife behind bars, it is hardly surprising that proposals to build more prisons meet significant opposition from residents living nearby.

“This is why the forthcoming review of sentencing is so important. Unless we see concerted action to make sentences proportionate and reduce demand on the system, this crisis will deepen and leave an even bigger mess for future generations to tackle.”

Projections published last week by the Ministry of Justice show that the number of people in prison could rise to as high as 105,200 by March 2029. On Monday, the population stood at 86,089.

The prison system is severely overcrowded, with more than half of jails in England and Wales holding more people than they are designed to accommodate. A long line of official inspection reports published in recent months have revealed how rising numbers are contributing to dire conditions, with many people in prison spending hours on end locked inside their cells with nothing to do.

The prison population projections came only a day after the National Audit Office (NAO) warned that there will be a continued risk to capacity in prisons, because so many jails are in poor condition. A quarter of prison places – 23,000 – do not meet fire safety standards and HM Prison and Probation Service’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8bn in the last four years.

Notes to editors

1. The Howard League for Penal Reform is the oldest penal reform charity in the world. It is a national charity working for less crime, safer communities and fewer people in prison.
2. For more information about the crumbling infrastructure in the prison estate, read this May 2024 blogpost.
3. For more information about prison overcrowding, read ‘Why are prisons overcrowded?’, our dedicated explainer page.
4. The National Audit Office report, Increasing the capacity of the prison estate to meet demand, can be found here.
5. According to the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), the prison population is projected to increase to between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800. This projected increase is driven by several factors, including: continued growth in police charging and prosecutorial activity; increased flows into the courts; rising levels of people on remand; and changes in sentencing policy and behaviour. The MoJ bulletin, Prison population projections: 2024 to 2029, can be found here.

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