Prison population could rise by 22% in four years, new projections indicate

The prison population in England and Wales could rise by 22% in the next four years, official projection figures seen by the Howard League for Penal Reform indicate today (Thursday 5 December).

Projections published by the Ministry of Justice show that the number of people in prison could rise to as high as 105,200 by March 2029. Earlier this week, the population stood at 86,059.

The prison system is already severely overcrowded, with more than half of jails in England and Wales holding more people than they are designed to accommodate. A long line of official inspection reports published in recent months have revealed how rising numbers are contributing to dire conditions, with many people in prison spending hours on end locked inside their cells with nothing to do.

Andrea Coomber KC (Hon.), Chief Executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “Our overcrowded prison system is already bursting at the seams and failing to help people to move on from crime. But these projections make it abundantly clear that, unless we act now, the worst is yet to come.

“The new government was right to make addressing the capacity crisis a priority immediately after coming to power, and the early release scheme has helped to ease some of the pressure in the short term, but more measures will be needed to deliver a lasting solution.

“This is why the forthcoming review of sentencing is so important. Making sentences longer and longer has put intolerable strain on the system, taken valuable resources away from preventing crime and supporting victims, and fuelled problems for other public services that have held the country back. It is time to follow the evidence and put things right.”

The prison population projections come only a day after the National Audit Office (NAO) reported that a commitment, made by the previous government in 2021, to create 20,000 additional prison places by the mid-2020s, was “unrealistic and not prioritised”. The NAO concluded that the plans will not be delivered until 2031, will cost at least £4.2bn more than estimated, and will be insufficient to meet the rising demand for places projected by the MoJ.

The NAO added that there will be a continued risk to capacity in prisons, because so many jails are in poor condition. A quarter of prison places – 23,000 – do not meet fire safety standards and HMPPS’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8bn in the last four years.

Notes to editors

1. The Howard League for Penal Reform is the oldest penal reform charity in the world. It is a national charity working for less crime, safer communities and fewer people in prison.
2. For more information about the crumbling infrastructure in the prison estate, read this May 2024 blogpost.
3. For more information about prison overcrowding, read ‘Why are prisons overcrowded?’
4. The National Audit Office report, Increasing the capacity of the prison estate to meet demand, can be found here.
5. According to the Ministry of Justice, the prison population is projected to increase to between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800. This projected increase is driven by several factors, including: continued growth in police charging and prosecutorial activity; increased flows into the courts; rising levels of people on remand; and changes in sentencing policy and behaviour.
6. The Ministry of Justice bulletin, Prison population projections: 2024 to 2029, can be found here.

Contact

Rob Preece
Communications Manager
Tel: +44 (0)7714 604955
Email: [email protected]