Early release and the progression model: what recent changes to the Sentencing Act now mean

Prisons and sentencing have been much in the news this summer, since the new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, announced he would be making changes to measures being brought in by the Sentencing Act 2026. 

This legislation, which became law in January, makes a range of changes which we initially discussed here and which have been implemented in stages across the course of the year. 

One of the most important measures in the Act is the introduction of a new sentence progression model for the majority of people serving sentences in custody. Originally due to come into force at the beginning of September, the government has now pushed commencement back to the beginning of October and has restricted eligibility for earlier release under the new progression model. 

This blogpost describes what the progression model would originally have involved, what changes have been made, and asks what this now means for the prison system as a whole. 

How were people being released from prison before the Sentencing Act and what was the progression model going to change? 

The new progression model affects people on standard determinate sentences (SDS). 

Prior to this new model, most of those on SDS would spend up to half of their sentence in custody before being released under supervision in the community, with the precise point of release – at either the 40% point (for the majority) or at the 50% point – dependant on the nature of their offences. A second group of those on SDS sentences, who are in prison for serious violent or sexual offences, were released after spending two-thirds of their sentence in custody. 

For most of those on SDS, the new model means spending one-third of the sentence in custody, one-third under intensive community supervision, and one-third on licence but with no active supervision from probation. For the second group of those on SDS, who would have been released at the two-thirds point of the sentence, the progression model would see that group spend 50% of their sentence in custody. 

Release at these various points will be automatic, although the government claims that release will be conditional on good behaviour and conduct while in custody. Poor behaviour could result in serving longer in custody, administered through the existing disciplinary sanction of additional days. 

What has now changed? 

The government has now introduced a range of exemptions to those eligible for the progression model. The Prime Minister initially confirmed on 4 August that the progression model would be delayed from commencing in September and that people serving sentences for rape, serious child sexual and grooming offences would no longer be eligible for earlier release. A second government announcement on 30 August introduced further exemptions, excluding those sentenced for ‘unlawful killing’. This includes offences such as manslaughter and death by dangerous driving. 

A full list of these offence-based exclusions can be found here. 

For people currently in prison, implementation of the progression model was always planned to be phased, with tranches of releases depending on sentence length. There will be 10 of these tranches, with the first commencing on 1 October 2026 and the last commencing on 8 June 2027.  

Exact numbers of people to be released in each tranche are dependent on the mix of the prison population at any given time but a Ministry of Justice analytical report has estimated both the numbers of people who will be released and the numbers of people who are now excluded from being released earlier. It suggests that 4,500 people currently in prison will be released over the 10 tranches, and 1,400 are now ineligible due to the new offence exclusions. 

What does this mean for prisons? 

The uncertainty over the summer as to what would happen has made it extremely difficult for prison staff to plan for the changes being brought in this October and has caused confusion and distress for those on SDS in prison. 

Beyond this immediate impact, there are far-reaching consequences that may hasten the next capacity crisis in prisons, where the government risks running out of cells. The progression model was designed to stave off this crisis but at most it was only ever going to buy the government a few years, as the prison population is projected to increase to between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030.  

Crucially, the government’s own Impact Assessment to the Sentencing Act acknowledged that any reduction for prison demand from the legislation’s measures would not result in prison place savings. This was before the latest changes restricting the scope of the progression model, which leave the government in an even tighter spot than before.  

In addition to the continuing challenges around capacity, none of the measures discussed above do anything to address the day-to-day reality of what it means to live and work in an overcrowded prison system. Instead, without further action from government, overcrowding in prisons will only get worse and will continue to cause acute crisis behind bars.

Andrew Neilson
Director of Campaigns

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